Animal-model concordance

Systematic review

Brief survey of animal-to-human concordance in the biomedical literature

We reviewed studies directly comparing a finding in live animals against the same finding in humans, then collected the evidence.

Summary

Each row is one finding: a sentence in which a paper compared an animal with a human. A: treatment outcomes, B: toxicity and safety, C: disease biology.

Findings by evidence level
Evidence levelStudiesFindingsConcordantDiscordantMixed
A — Intervention outcomes16236623310330
B — Toxicity and safety2080481814
C — Disease biology25974751615869
Caveats

Dominated by evidence level C — how similar the biology looks, not what happened when a disease was treated.

Quantities reported across multiple studies are not pooled, in general.

Publications generally biased toward positive findings.

Evidence map

Studies per disease area and species; the superscript is the highest level in that cell. Companion and laboratory dogs and cats are counted separately. The grid holds the 992 results that name a species. The other 201 are not on it: they state a finding about animal models as a class rather than about a named species, so there is no species to place.

Disease area mouse rat guinea pig rabbit pig sheep/goat non-human primate laboratory dog companion dog companion cat horse zebrafish All
oncology 46A 2C 1C 1B 3A 35A 1C 4A 88
neurology 43A 8A 1C 3C 1C 7A 4A 1C 60
immunology/inflammation 38A 3A 1C 1C 3A 2C 3C 1C 48
cross-cutting toxicology 14A 5A 2A 3C 1A 7A 3A 5A 25
cardiovascular 12A 3A 2A 6A 1C 4A 8A 4A 36
liver/GI 21A 5A 1C 1C 1B 1A 1C 27
infectious disease 12A 1C 1C 2A 4A 19
pain/musculoskeletal 10A 8A 1C 1C 2A 2C 19
psychiatry/addiction 11A 2A 4A 16
metabolic/endocrine 10A 2A 3C 1C 1C 1C 15
ophthalmology 2C 1C 4A 1C 1C 6
respiratory 6A 1C 7
reproductive/developmental 1C 2C 3
hematology 1C 1C 2
renal 3C 1B 4
dermatology 2C 2
other 10C 1A 1C 1C 2C 14
all23141541763323461217419
Fewer studiesMore (46 at most)· Superscript = highest evidence level in the cell (click a cell to see those findings)

Browse all 1,193 results →

Choosing Nori's first program

How can this collection of concordance evidence help us select our first candidate? We collected pairs of drugs with similar mechanisms targeted toward both human and companion animals, then asked whether the clinical outcomes pointed in the same direction.

Concordance counts only pairs that could be called either way. Mixed and indeterminate pairs are shown but excluded from the percentage.

Primary (drugs, biologics, vaccines, cell/gene therapies)
82% (76%–87%)
of 185 that could be called
586
pairs
Primary: disease-modifying use
83% (75%–89%)
of 116 that could be called
407
pairs
Primary: symptomatic or preventive use
81% (70%–90%)
of 69 that could be called
179
pairs
Primary: human approval before the veterinary evidence
83% (76%–89%)
of 149 that could be called
440
pairs
Primary: human approval after the veterinary evidence
100% (59%–100%)
of 7 that could be called
19
pairs
Primary: no US human approval
72% (53%–87%)
of 29 that could be called
127
pairs
Primary, disease-modifying: dog
82% (72%–90%)
of 79 that could be called
316
pairs
Primary, disease-modifying: cat
79% (58%–93%)
of 24 that could be called
63
pairs
Excluded from primary: supplements, minerals, devices, regimens, non-treatments
73% (59%–84%)
of 52 that could be called
201
pairs
Class analogues (separate)
75% (19%–99%)
of 4 that could be called
15
pairs
ConcordantDiscordantMixedIndeterminate

A second model re-judged 40 random primary pairs blind: 88% agreement, Cohen's kappa 0.764.

How to read this

Most are human medicines adopted later in veterinary practice, so agreement records adoption, not prediction.

"Discordant" means all evidence points the opposite way.

Browse all pairs →

We found that 477 of 799 drug pairs were approved for humans first, 22 the reverse, and a median gap 30 years between human drug approval and vet drug approval.

Filtering 1,949 human programs on where dog biology corresponds leaves 54 candidates.

Program selection →

Companion animals vs laboratory models

Where companion animals and laboratory models agreed with the human outcome, across the 108 pairs with a clear answer on all three sides
Laboratory matchedLaboratory did not
Companion matched864
Companion did not144
83%
companion animals matched humans
93%
laboratory models matched humans
18
pairs where only one agreed

Of those, companion animals were right in 4 (22%, 95% CI 6%–48%).

where the two disagreed, laboratory models matched the human outcome more often than companion animals.

Where the comparison is informative
SubsetPairsCompanion matchedLaboratory matched
human result positive10489/104 (86%)100/104 (96%)
human result negative tests prediction41/4 (25%)0/4 (0%)
approved in humans before the veterinary evidence9078/90 (87%)84/90 (93%)
approved in humans after the veterinary evidence22/2 (100%)2/2 (100%)
no US human approval1610/16 (62%)14/16 (88%)

Counting a laboratory side only when every study agrees: 65 pairs, companion 85%, laboratory 94%. concordance with human outcomes did not differ detectably between companion animals with naturally occurring disease and laboratory models of the same drug and condition.

Laboratory side read from abstracts by gemini-2.5-flash, audited 79% correct (42 of 53 reads).

Extreme class imbalance

104 of 108 pairs have a positive human result and the laboratory literature is almost uniformly positive, so agreement is near-automatic.

On the 4 negative-human pairs, laboratory models matched 0 and companion animals 1.

Methods

Eligible: a finding in live animals reported alongside the human one. Two independent retrieval mechanisms, two screening stages, extraction from open-access full text with sentence and page, verification by a second model, then adjudication of every result — including those verification rejected. Counts are computed from the records, not summarized by a model.

  • eligible studies with a final result: 363 (seeds excluded: 37; not from expanded retrieval: 0)
  • found by citation chasing: 167; by queries: 191; by both: 32
  • estimated eligible studies reachable (Chapman): 976 (95% CI 708–1244)
  • estimated recall of the union: 33% (95% CI 26%–46%)

Assumes the two mechanisms find eligible studies independently; positive dependence makes this an upper bound on recall.

Of results verification accepted, 34% were later dropped or corrected; of those it rejected, 10% were reinstated. 602 of 1,193 had a single unblinded adjudicator, oversampled by the spot-check.

Limitations

  • ~33% coverage (CI 26–46%), itself an upper bound.
  • Open-access full text only; veterinary side largely from abstracts.
  • Findings within a paper are not independent of one another.
  • Quantities grouped only where metric and unit match.
  • Selective publishing inflates apparent agreement.
  • Agreement is not prediction.
  • Adjudication partly single-reviewer and unblinded.
  • 201 results are kept off the evidence map: nearly all carry a grouped label ("animals", "rodents") rather than a species. A minority record the human side of the comparison in the animal field. Results naming several species now count toward each.

All 99 limitations, the protocol, data and code: repository.

Verify this work

Forty seeded results, each with its source, page and sentence. Open the spot-check →